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China just announced its biggest economic stimulus measures since the pandemic, which is resonating in stocks and commodities around the world.
After details of monetary stimulus and stock market support were announced by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on Tuesday, the national benchmark index, the CSI 300 (000300.SS), rose 4.3% – the biggest jump since July 2020. .
The country’s currency, the renminbi (CNH=X), fell 0.6% – the strongest since the Japanese yen imploded in early August.
In the US, stocks rose, but the biggest impact was felt in the commodities sector. Silver futures (SI=F) shot up more than 4.5% to a more than decade high. Copper futures (HG=F) – after just nine days – posted a tenth straight gain as they rose to a two-month high.
The stimulus, China’s latest attempt to pull its economy out of a slump caused by a shaky real estate market and deflationary pressures, includes more than $325 billion in measures, much of it through monetary – as opposed to fiscal – channels.
For banks, the PBOC reduced the amount of money needed to set aside for loans – the reserve requirement ratio – by half a percentage point, freeing up about $142 billion in short-term liquidity.
The plan also lowers short- to medium-term interest rates and makes mortgage relief a top priority.
According to PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng, these measures will benefit about 50 million households, saving them $21.3 billion in interest costs annually.
For China’s ailing stock market (the CSI is down 40% from its 2021 peak), a $71 billion stock market stabilization program was introduced to give securities firms, funds and insurers access to financing for stock purchases through a swap facility.
But before investors start cheering, it’s worth knowing that China’s track record with these big stimulus measures is mixed to poor.
In 2008, the country’s massive infrastructure spending led to unsustainable debt. Fast forward to 2015, where a stock market crash wiped out gains despite similar interventions. And during the pandemic, China’s real estate sector collapsed after a new stimulus effort fueled a bubble.
The question on everyone’s mind: will China add fiscal stimulus to that record?
If Beijing starts pouring more public money into the problem, especially infrastructure, it could have global ripple effects.
Commodities are likely to get another big boost, impacting everything from US manufacturing to the energy sector. There could be major shifts in supply chains and commodity pricing (yes, again).
